Research & Work in progress
Do Gasoline Price Changes Shift Mobility Choices? Evidence from German Walking Behavior
Status: Work in progress.
Abstract.
This paper investigates whether and how changes in gasoline prices affect individuals’ mobility choices, with a focus on walking activity in Germany. Using regional-level panel data from 2020 to 2022, I first employ an instrumental variables strategy to estimate behavioral responses to general gasoline price fluctuations. The results imply an elasticity of approximately 0.12. To examine responses to large, salient price shocks, I then leverage two plausibly exogenous events: the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the expiration of Germany’s three-month fuel tax cut, implementing an event-study design. These events caused sharp increases in gasoline prices, enabling credible identification of their causal impact on walking behavior. The estimates reveal a substantially stronger response: a 10 percent increase in gasoline prices leads to a 2.2–2.7 percent increase in average daily walking steps. The findings provide empirical evidence that higher gasoline prices cause individuals to substitute toward walking, with larger elasticities observed in response to major price shocks.
Pass-Through and Rebound: Lessons from Germany’s 2022 Fuel Tax Cut (with Ajornie Taylor)
Status: Work in progress.
How Transit Access Shapes the Walking Response to Fuel Price Changes
Status: Work in progress.